Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, political struggles are fought: optimistic declarations are delivered from different nations. Considerable effort is devoted on managing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from enemy soil, a ability provided through current data. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to intercept incoming cruise missiles streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: defensive missiles fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely delivered by Western nations. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: maybe the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from ruin and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a drone somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – probably imported technology. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: seven people killed, devastation and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a need that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to fill in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from US administration generated strong feelings, controversy and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new approach from US leadership follows the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, undoubtedly, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame certain parties of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration functions according to a premise understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration assumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to relinquish the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does little to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from assuming that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its favour in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding civilians and areas but avoiding a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: political desires to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to terminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, mainly require continued Western support.
