Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in academia but hardly any elected officials or activists want to engage with even the basics. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two pieces that seek impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass identity markers, taxes, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the idea that there might be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a feckless official who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win here and the other side will eventually not succeed but all factions has got something to acquire from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster must join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
